Events Calendar

 

​Major headwinds for the S&P 500 above the 3,900 level as a rising real yield causes P/E to fall hard

·  S&P 500 is not yet a bubble, as 3,900 is the border between a top or bubble starting (we think top)

·  A bubble (~5,200 S&P 500) only occurs if Fed moves to repress the 10Y yield, amplifying the P/E

·  Unless “this time is different” commodity cycles say “Value recovery” and not “Growth bubble”

·  Though MMT has few costs in early 2020s, it leads to inflationary obliteration late-2020s to 2030s