Trades and Markets Risks|
Equity trades leveraged to Reflation vs. Deflation are right at technical resistance, soon breaking out or down, portending "reflate or bust" for the S&P 500. We see six near-term positives for Reflation trades, primarily related to economic sentiment, central bank moves, global GDP, currency effects on inflation, EPS growth and fiscal policy. Toward mid-2018, we see six looming risks for Reflation trades and S&P 500, mainly related to Fed actions, our S&P 500 return model, corporate debt rates, non-U.S. restructuring and oil market issues. Additionally, we may discuss important topics looking out to mid-century regarding S&P 500 returns, commodities, long-term fiscal policy and de-globalization.
Head of Institutional Equity Strategy
Managing Director, Stifel
Barry Bannister joined the Stifel Nicolaus Research Team in connection with Stifel's acquisition of the Legg Mason Capital Markets Group in December of 2005. In 2011, Mr. Bannister commenced the role of Equity Investment Strategist for the group. Prior to 2011 he served as the equity analyst for Stifel in the areas of Engineering and Heavy Machinery, a position he had held since joining Legg Mason in 1998. Prior to that, he was a senior analyst providing North American machinery industry coverage and later co-head of U.S. equity research in the New York office of the UK investment bank S.G. Warburg & Company (now part of UBS) from 1992 to 1998. Prior to that, he served as a senior equity analyst for the buy-side firm FTIM/Highland Capital Management from 1990 to 1992, and before that as an equity analyst for the mutual funds and trusts of AmSouth Investment Management (now Regions Financial) from 1987 to 1990. He is a five-time winner of the Wall Street Journal All-Star Analyst award, seven-time winner of the Forbes Magazine/Financial Times/StarMine top analyst award, Top-10 U.S. Stock Pick analyst for CNBC/Zacks, and four-time Institutional Investor magazine All Star Analyst (2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010). Mr. Bannister holds a B.S. from Emory College and an M.B.A. from Emory University School of Business Administration. He has held a CFA designation since 1991.