The Chinese economy has become increasingly inefficient over the past few years. The most obvious indication is the decelerating growth trend, despite an ever-rising stock of debt. On top of it, the aging population challenge is looming large. Chinese policymakers have to deftly push through economic reform for brighter long-term prospects. We can see that China's new leaders are well aware that the sensible goal is to steer growth towards a relatively less painful deceleration, rather than to sustain growth rates at the cost of systemic financial risk. However, given the high corporate leverage and large-scale excess capacity, including in the housing sector, downside risk will persist and a bumpy landing remains our central scenario.
Wei Yao, Societe Generale's China Economist
Wei Yao is a China Economist at SG CIB, based in Hong Kong. Wei joined Societe Generale in 2010 from Kuwait China Investment Company in Kuwait, where she covered Asian economic research. Wei, ranked among top China economic forecasters by financial press, is a mainland economics specialist and provides unique insights into the often opaque world of the Chinese economy. She holds a Bachelor Degree from Fudan University in Shanghai and a Master Degree in economics from Tufts University in the US.