Almost two-thirds of the respondents expect continued growth for global stock markets in 2022, while the rest expect a correction.
U.S stocks are seen to be hit hardest by those who forecast a correction, with one-third of respondents predicting the S&P 500 Index down five to ten percent in 2022, led by tech and consumer goods companies.
More than half of the respondents see the Oslo Stock Exchange Benchmark Index (OSEBX) up five to ten percentThe remaining respondents are split between being more bullish (OSEBX up more than 10%) and considerably more bearish (OSEBX down 5-10%).
Almost half of the respondents expect both the MSCI Europe Index and MSCI Asia Index to gain five to ten percent.
"It is not surprising to see different markets expectations for global stocks this year. US and European stock markets had a great 2021, but valuations are rich and with high inflation and rising yields, we might see see a shift in sentiment this year," says Erlend Fredriksen, President of CFA Society Norway and Portfolio Manager in DNB Asset Management.
GDP Growth
All respondents expect a positive global GDP growth in 2022, with a slight tilt to a growth of three to four percent. It is also widely expected that central banks around the globe will adjust its rate levels.
A majority expect The Norwegian Central Bank to have an interest rate between 1 and 1.5 percent by the end of next year, while a minority of respondents predicts that European Central Bank will have an interest rate between -0.5 and 0 at year-end.
By the end of 2022, one dollar is on average seen to cost 8.73 Norwegian kroner and one Euro is expected to cost 9.86 Norwegian kroner, hence largely similar to current levels of 8.64 and 9.92, respectively.
About one-third of the respondents predict Brent crude will trade between 60 to 70 dollars per barrel, and one-third assume that it will trade between 70 to 80 dollars per barrel. A small minority predict it to trade at more than $90 dollar per barrel.
About the survey
The survey was conducted between 22 December and 13 January 2022. The respondents hold positions in private banking, portfolio management and analysis, and company finance departments.
About CFA Society Norway
CFA Society Norway consist of 119 members from high profiled financial institutions as NBIM, DNB, Danske Bank, and PWC. The CFA designation is held by around 178.000 charterholders globally organized in 154 local societies around the world.