We are delighted to share the key insights from our 3rd half-day Asset Allocation Outlook conference, held on September 17th, 2025, in the stunning setting of Ljubljana Castle.
Bringing together leading industry experts and major investors, the event fostered engaging discussions on the current market environment and the outlook ahead. Here are some of the key takeaways:
Top 3 Negative Market Indicators:
1. The US economy appears to be slowing down.
2. US government debt is expected to continue rising.
3. Inflation may be bottoming.
Top 3 Positive Market Indicators:
1. The Federal Reserve is set to initiate rapid easing measures.
2. There are emerging signs of improvement in the global economy.
3. Europe is planning to significantly increase military spending, boosting the defence sector.
Invesco’s 12-Month Outlook: favour bank loans and riskier assets, except for gold and US equities.
Equity Market Outlook:
· The positive equity market trend remains strong and bears similarities to the 1990s. With lower interest rates from the Fed, a scen ario similar to 1998 seems likely.
· The AI narrative continues to be a major driver, although valuations may not appear attractive
· Medium-Term Strategy: Gradually increase exposure to the S&P 493 and non-US markets, which have lower expectations compared to the US, particularly outside the MAG7.
Thank you to our distinguished speakers: Paul Jackson (Invesco EMEA), Jaka Kirn, CFA, CAIA, FRM (Zavarovalnica Triglav), Raphael Stern, CFA (Invesco EMEA) and Aleš Šoba, CFA (Sava Infond). We also appreciate the valuable insights shared by our round table panellists: Primož Cencelj, CFA (Modra Zavarovalnica), Petar Vlaić, CFA (Erste Group) and Simon Logar (NLB Skladi). Andej Petek, CFA (Triglav Skladi) moderated the round table.